Art Cashin sees this key risk for SPY and QQQ ETFs in 2024

2024-01-01 14:02:49 ET

Arthur Cashin, the UBS Director for Floor Operations, is one of the top legends on Wall Street. Popularly known as Art Cashin, he is a regular feature in CNBC, where he has appeared for more than 25 years. Now 81 years old, Arthur has been in the market for over 60 years.

Art Cashin’s 2023 stock forecast was correct

Art Cashin had one of the most accurate market outlook for 2023. In an interview with CNBC, he warned that the market would see some turbulence in the beginning followed by a major rally for the remainder of the year. This was a contrarian call since most analysts were pricing in a recession and more Fed tightening.

The market saw elevated volatility in the first half of the year as regional banks like Signature, Silicon Valley Bank, and First Republic collapsed. The biggest collapse was Credit Suisse, then the second-biggest bank in Switzerland. In the end, the company was acquired by UBS for less than $4 billion.

American stocks – and cryptocurrencies – then had a strong performance during the year. The State Street S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ (QQQ) ETFs jumped by more than 25% and 55%, respectively. This rally was helped by the Magnificent 7 companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple.

Arthur Cashin 2024 forecast

Art Cashin is still optimistic about American stocks, which he believes have done well over the years. Indeed, while indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 go through regular short-term volatility, their long-term performance is usually positive. They all recovered from past dips, including the dot com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

However, Art Cashin believes that the biggest risk in the market is geopolitics. In a CNBC interview, he noted that the crisis in the Middle East was at risk of escalating. For one, some war hawks in Washington like John Bolton and Lindsey Graham, are supporting striking Iran.

Houthi rebels have continued attacking shipping vessels at the Red Sea and the situation could worsen. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine is continuing even as Washington and Brussels funding dries up.

And in Asia, Xi Jinping has committed to reunifying mainland China with Taiwan. There are other smaller conflicts, which could impact the market.

Still, most analysts are optimistic about the market. In a recent note, analysts at Oppenheimer noted that the S&P 500 index could rise by 12% after the dovish Fed decision. Banks like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are also optimistic about the market.

In a previous CNBC interview, Cashin also noted that the upcoming US election will be positive for American equities.

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