Tom Brady, the six-time Super Bowl winner and four-time Super Bowl MVP, is preparing for the tenth Super Bowl in his illustrious 20-year career.
The former New England Patriot quarterback will be heading into the big game for the first time as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. The Bucs are the first team to have the opportunity to become the first team to ever win a Super Bowl in their own stadium.
On September 30, 2001, Tom Brady got his first start as a New England Patriot after Drew Bledsoe was sidelined with injury. Brady and the Patriots defeated Peyton Manning and the Colts in what would turn out to be the start of a rivalry for the generations. During this time, the S&P 500 was Tesla-free and priced at 1,038.55. Over the next 19-years, the S&P had a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 7.03% and rose to $3,773.77.
While Tom Brady likely has little-to-no actual influence on the market, his over-achieving career has coincided with an extended under-performance of markets. Since the expansion of the S&P to 500 stocks in 1957, the S&P has averaged about 8% returns per year, meaning the true cost of Tom Brady’s contract is a near 1% hit to the market per year (plus the other millions of course).
Unfortunately for investors, markets have underperformed by about 6.5% in years where Brady made the big game. In the years that he went to the Super Bowl, the market has only averaged 0.54% gains, with a median return of 3%.
During the years Brady won the Super Bowl, the market averaged a 6.03% return.
So what does this mean for investors? Should we be holding the line for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs?
Unfortunately for us, Brady hasn't been the most gracious of losers. In the three years that he lost the Super Bowl, markets suffered heavily, losing 10.44% on average and tanking in two out of the three years.
So while it seems investors may want to cheer for the Buccaneers, they may not want Brady himself to have a great game. In years when Brady has been the Super Bowl MVP, the S&P averages just 1.08% and is negative half the time.
The final reason that investors may end up being forced to side with the G.O.A.T over the Kid is because, on average, an NFC win returns 13.8% while an AFC triumph returns 10.1%. It is important to note however that this stat includes years before the Tom Terrific Tax went into effect.
So should you root with your pocket this Super Bowl Sunday? Well, if the age old saying "correlation does not imply causation" is in fact true (which it is), then we would say no.
However, if the idea of Tom Brady as a win-hungry super-villain who destroys defenses and investment returns strikes your fancy, then we definitely suggest rooting for Tom Brady and the Bucs as the lesser of two evils.
