Stocks were mixed to start the shortened week with markets closed in observance of Good Friday.
OPEC+ shocked investors over the weekend with its decision to cut back production by over a million barrels per day. The output cut sent oil prices higher and led to Fed officials commenting that the decision may lead to inflation being even harder to overcome as the central bank remains focused on getting price hikes back under control. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) also grabbed headlines and saw its share price fall more than 6% to start the week despite it reaching record deliveries with the help of price cuts as it delivered 422,000 vehicles and produced 440,000 units in the first quarter of 2023.
All About Jobs
The March Employment Situation Report is scheduled for release on Friday morning despite markets being closed. The jobs report is expected to show 239,000 jobs added after 311,000 were added in February. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, is projected to stay flat at 3.6% after dropping to 3.4% back in January. Lastly, average hourly earnings are estimated to rise 0.3% in March following a 0.2% jump the previous month.
239,000 jobs being added would match, with December of 2022, the lowest over the past two years. Additionally, the unemployment rate hasn’t risen much but it has stayed flat over the past year as it reached 3.6% back in March of 2022. The projections show a stable economy but not one that is growing at any significant rate with the Federal Reserve pushing tight policy to get inflation under control.
Other Economic Data
Outside of the monthly jobs report, the ADP employment change, trade balance, and weekly unemployment claims highlight economic data set to release this week.
The March ADP Employment Report is expected to show the private sector adding 205,000 jobs following 242,000 added in February. The trade deficit is meanwhile expected to expand from $68.3 billion to $69 billion in February. Finally, initial unemployment claims are projected to rise slightly from 198,000 to 203,000 claims for the week ending April 1.
Light Earnings
Lastly, earnings reports are very light this week with minimal big names reporting as the largest companies set to report quarterly financial results are Conagra (CAG), Constellation Brands (STZ), and Levi Strauss (LEVI). Conagra is the only one expected to see a rise in earnings-per-share from a year-ago with an expected increase from $0.58 to $0.64 a share.
Economic Events this Week
Tuesday
- 10:00 ET - Factory Orders
- 10:00 ET - JOLTS
Wednesday
- 08:15 ET - ADP Employment Change
- 08:30 ET - Trade Balance
- 10:30 ET - EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday
- 08:30 ET - Continuing Claims
- 08:30 ET - Initial Claims
- 10:30 ET - EIA Natural Gas Inventories
Friday
- 08:30 ET - Avg. Hourly Earnings
- 08:30 ET - Nonfarm Payrolls
- 08:30 ET - Nonfarm Private Payrolls
- 08:30 ET - Unemployment Rate
- 15:00 ET - Consumer Credit
Earnings Reports This Week
Tuesday:
Before the bell:
AYI, MSM, LNN
After the bell:
SGH, RGP, DLO
Wednesday:
Before the bell:
CAG, SCHN, SMPL
After the bell:
SLP
Thursday:
Before the bell:
STZ, LEVI, RPM, LW
After the bell:
MDRX, WDFC