Market Week Ahead for Jan. 6 - Jan. 10

Jan. 6, 2019 - The first full week of 2020 promises to be a busy one. We get updates on trade and employment and a busier than normal earnings calendar, all while hoping for some de-escalation to the current tensions with Iran.

The Iran situation is too fluid for us to try to trade around. Defense stocks and oil both spiked in the initial aftermath of the death of Iranian Qassem Soleimani in Iraq. These are both reasonable reactions, but the rally in defense stocks is likely to fade unless there is some actual expenditure of ordinance. Oil is trickier, but gains are still likely to fade if tensions ease. Potentially complicating the oil issue is President Trump's threat to sanction Iraq if that country forces out U.S. troops. That creates a scenario where tensions with Iran fade, but the global oil supply is still negatively effected.

The rest of the information we get this week will be interesting, but isn't super-likely to be market moving. It's hard to put too much stock in December's employment report because there's a lot of seasonal hiring and other noise that's hard to fully adjust away. Trade is also likely to not be particularly meaningful as President Trump is planning to sign that phase one deal this month, making last month's stats not particularly predictive of anything.

One possible thing to keep an eye on: The earnings calendar does have a cluster of home builders, surprises in the same direction could cause the market to react.

Economic Events this Week

Unemployment data is the biggest item on the list this week by a large margin, but Wednesday's crude oil inventory number may be more meaningful than usual given the tensions in the Middle East.

•  Tuesday
  • 8:30 a.m. - Trade Balance
  • 10:00 a.m. - ISM Non-Manufacturing
• Wednesday
  • 8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Change
• Thursday
  • 8:30 a.m. - Initial Claims
• Friday
  • 8:30 a.m. - Nonfarm Payrolls
  • 8:30 a.m. - Avg. Hourly Earnings
  • 8:30 a.m. - Unemployment Rate
  • 8:30 a.m. - Average Workweek

Earnings Reports this Week

This week is probably busier than usual due to thing being delayed by the holidays. We're still a few weeks out from the start of earnings season.

Monday:

• After the bell: CALM, CMC

Tuesday:

• Before the bell: ANGO

Wednesday:

• Before the bell: STZ, GBX, LEN, RPM, WBA
• After the bell: BBBY, HELE

Thursday:

• Before the bell: AYI, AZZ, LNN, SMPL
• After the bell: JEF, KBH, SNZ, WDFC

Friday:

• Before the bell: INFY
• After the bell:

Sector and Industry Sentiment

As part of the upgrade and redesigned InvestorsObserver, we are now calculating a proprietary Sentiment Score for stocks. This score looks at price action, volume trends and data from the options market when available to try to get a sense of how the market feels about a stock. We're replacing the lists of sectors and industries that have performed well or poorly over various time periods with a ranking of all eleven sectors in order of sentiment and then the top ten and bottom ten industries.

Sector Sentiment

Energy Technology Communication Services Industrials Financial Services Real Estate Healthcare Consumer Cyclical Consumer Defensive Basic Materials Utilities

Top Industries

Textile Manufacturing Airports & Air Services Aerospace & Defense Residential Construction Insurance Brokers Oil & Gas Integrated REIT - Residential Oil & Gas Drilling Oil & Gas Midstream Oil & Gas E&P

Bottom Industries

Confectioners Paper & Paper Products Utilities - Regulated Water Lodging Health Care Plans Chemicals Medical Distribution Airlines Building Materials REIT - Hotel & Motel