Stocks stayed mostly flat to start the week as investors await Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell later in the week and the February Employment Situation Report scheduled for Friday morning.
Meanwhile, earnings reports calm down this week with just a handful of bigger names set to report quarterly results such as Oracle (ORCL), Gap (GPS), United Natural Foods (UNFI), and BJ’s Wholesale (BJ).
Eyes on Powell Yet Again
Investors will be listening closely to what Jerome Powell says, looking for any signals about upcoming monetary policy decisions. A few more interest rate hikes are expected with a peak rate projected at above 5%. Solid economic data and sustained higher inflation rates point to rates not being held flat or coming down in the short term.
All that said, testimony from the Fed Chair is unlikely to give any real update on what the central bank is planning to do. There will be some vague Fedspeak about current views of the economy but won’t go so far as to providing anything concrete or new. Instead, investors will read into the comments to the point where it will move markets somewhat even if nothing is laid out in full.
Jobs Report
The big economic report for the week is the February jobs report which is expected to show the economy adding 205,000 jobs last month after 517,000 were added in January. The unemployment rate is projected to stay flat at 3.4% after dropping to that number from 3.5% in December. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are estimated to rise 0.3% in February following a similar increase the previous month.
The expected drop to 205,000 new jobs is far lower than January’s number but is more in line with the number added in November and December at 290,000 and 260,000 respectively. The unemployment rate staying flat is also still strong as the 3.4% rate remains right at a 70-year low and just below where it was before the pandemic.
The outcome of the February report will be extra interesting when coupled with Powell's comments earlier in the week as a strong report will only lead to more expectations for higher interest rates while a weaker report may lead to caution as policymakers look to avoid a recession with tighter policies.
Economic Events this Week
Tuesday
- 10:00 ET - Wholesale Inventories
- 15:00 ET - Consumer Credit
Wednesday
- 08:15 ET - ADP Employment Change
- 10:00 ET - JOLTS - Job Openings
- 10:30 ET - EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday
- 08:30 ET - Continuing Claims
- 08:30 ET - Initial Claims
- 10:30 ET - EIA Natural Gas Inventories
Friday
- 08:30 ET - Avg. Hourly Earnings
- 08:30 ET - Nonfarm Payrolls
- 08:30 ET - Nonfarm Private Payrolls
- 08:30 ET - Unemployment Rate
Earnings Reports This Week
Tuesday:
Before the bell:
DKS, SE, THO, DOLE, SQSP
After the bell:
CASY, CRWD, SFIX, AGTI, CRCT
Wednesday:
Before the bell:
UNFI, CPB, ABM, KFY, REVG, LTH
After the bell:
ESTE, MDB, SOVO, ASAN, NDLS
Thursday:
Before the bell:
JD, BJ, TTC, GCO, PSFE
After the bell:
ORCL, GPS, ULTA, MTN, DOCU, ZUMZ, WPM, AVO
Friday:
Before the bell:
BKE, GENI