The Market Week Ahead: Sep. 30 – Oct. 4

 

Sep. 30, 2019 – The economic and earnings calendars don’t offer much in the way of market-moving news this week until we get to Friday’s earnings report.

This is still going to be a very busy week in the news, but the effects on the market are harder to predict.

The ongoing impeachment investigation in the House of Representatives is going to get a lot of airtime, as will President Trump’s tweets about it. 

It’s possible that all of this can play out with no real impact on the market, but that’s probably not entirely likely. News reports Friday that the White House was considering some kind of capital control to keep investments from flowing into China helped sink the market to end the week. Those rumors were largely rolled back over the weekend, but it seems that even though the president seems to be largely focused on impeachment, other members of the administration are still trying to get things done.

There seem to be two schools of thought about how things may play out here. One is that policy making will grind to a halt as the administration and Congress focus on the impeachment. This gives us a continuation of the status quo and some short-term policy stability.

The other potential course is that Trump tries to distract people from the impeachment by pushing other items, be it more tax cuts, trade or some other foreign policy goal. Taxes can’t actually be lowered without the approval of Congress, so that seems unlikely to succeed, but an announcement could move markets in the short term. Stylistically, Trump’s big moves on trade have been bad for markets, so unless he’s willing to pull back from some earlier statements and make a deal with China, new trade actions are also likely bad for stock prices. Other foreign policy maneuvers are harder to tie back to stock prices, although some easing of tensions with Iran would be welcome even if markets didn’t react.

Economic Events this Week

On Tuesday and Thursday will give us an idea about how well the business side of the economy is doing, but the real action is Friday’s employment report. A big surprise, particularly to the downside, could move markets, but the employment report stands a decent chance of moving things either way, because it is more closely tied to Federal Reserve policy.

  • Monday
    • 9:45 a.m. – Chicago PMI
  • Tuesday
    • 10:00 a.m. – ISM Manufacturing Index
  •  Wednesday
    • 10:30 a.m. – EIA Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thursday
    • 10:00 a.m. – ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
  • Friday
    • 8:30 a.m. – Nonfarm Payrolls
    • 8:30 a.m. – Avg. Hourly Earnings
    • 8:30 a.m. – Unemployment Rate
    • 8:30 a.m. – Average Workweek
    • 8:30 a.m. – Trade Balance

Earnings Reports this Week

Pepsi and Costco are the biggest names this week.

Tuesday:

  • Before the bell: MKC
  • After the bell: None

Wednesday:

  • Before the bell: PAYX, LEN, LW, RPM, AYI
  • After the bell: BBBY

Thursday:

  • Before the bell: PEP, STZ
  • After the bell: COST

Friday:

  • Before the bell: None

Sector Analysis 

Strong Sectors past Month

These sectors are up 5% or more in the last 20 trading days:

  • Robotics & Artificial Intelligence
  • Regional Banking
  • Banks
  • Retail
  • Homebuilders
  • Steel

Weak sectors past month

These sectors are down 5% or more in the last 20 trading days:

  • Junior Gold Miners
  • Gold Miners
  • Silver
  • Biotechnology

Strong sectors past five trading days

These sectors are up more than 3% in the last five days.

  • None

Weak sectors past five trading days

These sectors are down more than 3% in the last five days.

  • Oil Services
  • Solar
  • Biotechnology
  • Junior Gold Miners
  • Gold Miners
  • Oil & Gas Exploration
  • Silver
  • Coal
  • Metals & Mining

Bobby Raines

Bobby Raines

Bobby Raines is the Managing Editor of the Market Intelligence Center. He has degrees in Mass Communications and History from Emory & Henry College. Bobby worked at a mid-sized daily newspaper before making a switch to covering the financial industry full time in the years leading up to the financial crisis. He has been a member of the Fresh Brewed Media team since 2011 and has served as a writer and analyst. You can write to him at braines@marketintelligencecenter.com or follow him on Twitter: @BRatMICenter.

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