The Market Week Ahead: Nov. 26 – Nov. 30

 

Nov. 26  – This week got off to a good start after a rough couple of weeks, it’s nice to see the market post a green day. That said, this week could be a volatile one as traders are likely to be focused on the Federal Reserve and trade, both of which have caused more heartbreak than happiness for stocks recently.

We’ll get the minutes of the central bank’s most-recent meeting on Wednesday afternoon, but more likely to move markets are two speeches, by Vice Chairman Richard Clarida on Tuesday and then Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Wednesday. Neither of these speeches is explicitly about what the Fed plans to do at it’s next meeting, but they will be closely scrutinized for hints about the Open Market Committee’s thinking.

The surprise seems to more likely to the upside as the CME’s FedWatch tool  has the current odds of a rate hike in December at 80%. It seems like that’s the scenario the market is expecting, so any big reaction is more likely to come on suggestions that a hike potentially isn’t coming.

The other big driver this week is likely to be trade. Various administration officials had pointed to this week’s G-20 meeting in Argentina as a time for President Trump and Chinese President Xi to work out a trade deal, but even as this piece was being written, The Wall Street Journal published quotes from an interview in which the president said he plans to go ahead with raising tariffs on $200 billion in goods imported from China to 25% from 10%. Trump added that if negotiations are unsuccessful, he will also impose duties on the remaining $267 billion of Chinese imports that have not yet been hit with tariffs. That last lot includes iPhones and a large number of consumer products. 

Thee WSJ piece already put the market in a selling mood after hours, so how the situation develops the rest of the week should be interesting.

Economic Events this Week

Consumer confidence will be interesting as stock-market volatility can sometimes show up in that reading. The real action this week is the Fed though, in addition to the minutes of the last meeting, several governors are speaking this week, and Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak on Wednesday. 

  • Tuesday
    • 9:00 a.m. – Case-Shiller 20-city Index
    • 9:00 a.m. – Consumer Confidence
  • Wednesday
    • 8:30 a.m. – GDP – Second Estimate
    • 10:00 a.m. – New Home Sales
    • 10:30 a.m. – Crude Inventories
    • 2:00 p.m. – FOMC Minutes
  • Thursday
    • 8:30 a.m. – Personal Income
    • 8:30 a.m. – Personal Spending
    • 8:30 a.m. – PCE Prices
    • 10:00 a.m. – Pending Home Sales

Earnings Reports this Week

Salesforce.com on Tuesday and a group of big tech names on Thursday afternoon are the highlights this week.

Monday:

  • Before the bell: None
  • After the bell: STNE, ENTA

Tuesday:

  • Before the bell: BNS, EV, CBRL
  • After the bell: CRM, NTNX, GWPH

Wednesday:

  • Before the bell: RY, WB, TIF, SJM, BURL
  • After the bell: VEEV, SMTC, ASND, BOX

Thursday:

  • Before the bell: TD, CM, DLTR, CMD
  • After the bell: VMW, HPQ, WDAY, PANW, SPLK

Sector Analysis 

Strong Sectors past Month

These sectors are up 5% or more in the last 20 trading days:

  • Solar
  • Airlines
  • Regional Banks
  • Materials
  • Banks

Weak sectors past month

These sectors are down 5% or more in the last 20 trading days:

  • Oil Services
  • Oil & Gas Exploration
  • Metals and Mining
  • Coal
  • Technology
  • Nasdaq 100

Strong sectors past five trading days

These sectors are up 3% or more in the last five trading days.

  • Nothing

Weak sectors past five trading days

These sectors are down 3% or more in the last five trading days.

  • Coal
  • Crude Oil
  • Steel
  • Metals & Mining
  • Oil & Gas Exploration
  • Retail
  • Technology
  • Nasdaq 100
  • Oil Services
  • Semiconductors
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average
  • Industrials
  • Internet

Bobby Raines

Bobby Raines

Bobby Raines is the Managing Editor of the Market Intelligence Center. He has degrees in Mass Communications and History from Emory & Henry College. Bobby worked at a mid-sized daily newspaper before making a switch to covering the financial industry full time in the years leading up to the financial crisis. He has been a member of the Fresh Brewed Media team since 2011 and has served as a writer and analyst. You can write to him at braines@marketintelligencecenter.com or follow him on Twitter: @BRatMICenter.

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