Feb. 11 – The news cycle this week seems almost certain to be dominated by ongoing negotiations to fund the federal government and avoid another government shutdown. Behind that are trade talks with China, currently scheduled for Thursday and Friday this week.
The last shutdown didn’t do much to the market, and this one (if it happens) isn’t likely to have an immediate effect either, although there is some economic impact that will show up.
Trade remains a much bigger deal for the market. As of now, it seems that tariffs on up to $200 billion worth of goods imported from China are scheduled to go into effect on March 1 if there isn’t a deal. That deadline was pushed back from Jan. 1 after President Trump and Chinese Premier Xi agreed to negotiations on Dec. 1. Trump has said that no deal would be finalized until he meets with Xi again, but this has generally not been interpreted to mean that the tariffs would be rising on March 1. We talked about the possibilities on Friday, and not much has changed over the weekend.
The headline risk on trade seems more likely to be toward the downside. To date, each round of negotiations has ended with some positive statement that has been pretty light on specifics. It is possible that a major deal that reworks the entire relationship between the two countries is week’s away from being announced, but it seems equally likely that the final outcome is China agrees to some vague principles about intellectual property protections and promises to increase soybean purchases.
Economic Events this Week
The inflation data (CPI, PPI) probably has the biggest potential to move the market this week, but Friday’s consumer sentiment should also be interesting.
- 8:30 a.m. – CPI
- 10:30 a.m. – EIA Crude Oil Inventory
- 8:30 a.m. – Retail Sales
- 8:30 a.m. – PPI
- 10:00 a.m. – Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Prelim.
Earnings Reports this Week
Lots of earnings reports this week.
- Before the bell: FIS, WELL, WEC, SHOP, OMC
- After the bell: BIDU, AMX, OXY, ATVI, ACGL
- Before the bell: HLT, TEVA, GPN, CBRE, GOLD
- After the bell: CSCO, AIG, WMB, EQIX, MFC
- Before the bell: KO, AZN, DUK, CME, WM
- After the bell: NVDA, TRP, AMAT, CBS, ANET
- Before the bell: PEP, ENB, DE, MCO, KHC
Strong Sectors past Month
These sectors are up 5% or more in the last 20 trading days:
- Regional Banks
- Real Estate
- Cyber Security
- Medical Devices
- Robotics & Automation
- Gold Miners
Weak sectors past month
These no sectors are down 10% or more in the last 20 trading days:
- Oil & Gas Exploration
Strong sectors past five trading days
No sectors are up more than 3% in the last five days.
Weak sectors past five trading days
No sectors are down 3% or more in the last five trading days.
- Oil & Gas Exploration
- Oil Services