The Market Week Ahead: Aug. 26 – Aug. 30

 

Aug. 26, 2019 – The course of this week, like the last few, seems unlikely to be determined by the things on the calendar.

A more likely course for the week is that market’s will move based on news reports about the status of the trade war with China, and the president’s tweets.

This is what happened last week, and we see no real reason to expect a change. The rhetoric has been in more conciliatory direction in the early parts of this week, but that is likely due to Friday’s sharp decline, and then another drop when the futures market opened for trading Sunday evening. 

The President’s claim that Chinese officials called to restart talks has been all but denied by Chinese officials. It doesn’t seem like either side has changed positions on any of the underlying issues, nor does it seem like either side is willing to give ground to the other. So we’re skeptical when we hear that talks are “productive” because we’ve been hearing that for more than a year now, and have yet to see negotiations actually produce anything, except for more tariffs. 

The Fed doesn’t meet again until the middle of September and earnings season is basically over, so we’re left with nothing but the trade war for the market to fixate on. It seems that the White House attempts to soften things whenever the market gets ugly, so perhaps the messaging will be a bit more gentle after the weekend’s near melt down.

Economic Events this Week

Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence number will be interesting, but barring a major collapse, it isn’t likely to move markets much. Similarly, inflation data on Friday has the potential to swing markets, but only if there’s a big surprise.

  • Monday
    • 8:30 a.m. – Durable Orders
  • Tuesday
    • 10:00 a.m. – Consumer Confidence
  • Wednesday
    • 10:30 a.m. – EIA Crude Oil Inventories
  • Friday
    • 8:30 a.m. – Personal Income
    • 8:30 a.m. – Personal Spending
    • 8:30 a.m. – PCE Price Index
    • 9:45 a.m. – Chicago PMI

Earnings Reports this Week

Not much on the docket this week.

Tuesday:

  • Before the bell: BNS, BMO, SJM, CTLT, PLAN
  • After the bell: ADSK, VEEV, HEI, HPE

Wednesday:

  • Before the bell: BF.B, TIF, COTY
  • After the bell: OKTA, FIVE, ESTC, HRB, WSM

Thursday:

  • Before the bell: TD, DG, DLTR, BBY, MRVL
  • After the bell: WDAY, DELL, ULTA, COO

Friday:

  • Before the bell: CPB

Sector Analysis 

Strong Sectors past Month

These sectors are up 5% or more in the last 20 trading days:

  • Gold Miners
  • Silver
  • Solar
  • Junior Gold Miners

Weak sectors past month

These sectors are down 5% or more in the last 20 trading days:

  • Oil Services
  • Steel
  • Coal
  • Oil & Gas Exploration
  • Metals & Mining
  • Regional Banking
  • Banks
  • Energy
  • Retail
  • Robotics & Automation
  • Cybersecurity
  • Semiconductors
  • Agriculture
  • Biotechnology

Strong sectors past five trading days

These sectors are up more than 3% in the last five days.

  • Gold Miners
  • Junior Gold Miners
  • Silver

Weak sectors past five trading days

These sectors are down more than 3% in the last five days.

  • Biotechnology
  • Materials
  • Oil Services
  • Steel

Bobby Raines

Bobby Raines

Bobby Raines is the Managing Editor of the Market Intelligence Center. He has degrees in Mass Communications and History from Emory & Henry College. Bobby worked at a mid-sized daily newspaper before making a switch to covering the financial industry full time in the years leading up to the financial crisis. He has been a member of the Fresh Brewed Media team since 2011 and has served as a writer and analyst. You can write to him at braines@marketintelligencecenter.com or follow him on Twitter: @BRatMICenter.

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