The Market Week Ahead: June 24 – June 28

 

June 24, 2019 – On the calendar, this week promises to be a lot quieter than last week. Which is not to say this is going to be a quiet week, just that there’s nothing already on the calendar that jumps out as definitely market moving in the same way that last week’s Federal Reserve meeting did.

Additionally, now that the central bank has all but promised a rate cut in July, it seems like the data that could have been interesting is suddenly less so. A late-week release of inflation data could be interesting, but likely only if the PCE number comes in well above the Fed’s 2% target, which it hasn’t done for the entirety of the post-recession recovery.

There are a couple of earnings reports where a big surprise, particularly to the downside, could have a big effect on the broader market, but the real action this week is, as it seems to be so often these days, in the White House.

The President is set to meet Chinese Premier Xi during the G-20 summit in Japan. The timing of the meeting hasn’t been announced, but since the summit runs from Friday to Saturday, it’s possible that the actual meeting will be after stocks close for the week. 

That doesn’t mean we won’t get a posturing tweet or two ahead of the meeting. The market has stopped taking vague announcements about the state of talks quite so seriously, but did rise a bit after the Trump-Xi meeting was confirmed last week.

Also potentially moving markets this week is the situation with Iran. So far, it doesn’t seem like the situation has progressed so far that it can’t be de-escalated without additional hostilities, but some of the rhetoric from members of the Trump administration has been markedly more in favor of using force than what has actually transpired so far.

Trump did announce new sanctions on the country, but nearly all of the Iranian economy was already subject to sanctions, making meaningful new measures hard to find.

Another thing to keep an eye on this week. Stocks are at all-time highs, which wouldn’t be cause for alarm if bond yields, which typically move in the same direction as stock prices, weren’t also at recent lows. The yield on 10-year Treasuries is at levels not seen since last 2016. Investors putting money into Treasuries usually signals some anxiety about future returns on riskier asset classes, so it is unusual to see a big drop in bond yields at the same time stocks are making new highs.

Economic Events this Week

Consumer and producer price indices are the high points this week, but it seems like it would take a big surprise to really cause much reaction in the market.

  •  Tuesday
    • 10:00 a.m. – Consumer Confidence
    • 10:00 a.m. – New Home Sales
  • Wednesday
    • 8:30 a.m. – Durable Orders
    • 10:30 a.m. – EIA Crude Oil Inventories
  • Friday
    • 8:30 a.m. – Personal Income
    • 8:30 a.m. – Personal Spending
    • 8:30 a.m. – PCE Price Index
    • 8:30 a.m. – Core CPE Price Index

Earnings Reports this Week

Lennar, Micron and FedEx are probably the most interesting reports this week, but the calendar is pretty light.  

Tuesday:

  • Before the bell: LEN, FDS
  • After the bell: FDX, MU, SNX

Wednesday:

  • Before the bell: GIS, PAYX, INFO, BB
  • After the bell: None

Thursday:

  • Before the bell: ACN, WBA, MKC, CAG, SJR
  • After the bell: NKE

Friday:

  • Before the bell: STZ

Sector Analysis 

Strong Sectors past Month

These sectors are up 5% or more in the last 20 trading days:

  • Gold Miners
  • Junior Gold Miners
  • Solar
  • Gold
  • Medical Devices
  • AGribusiness
  • MAterials
  • Robotics and Artificial Intelligence
  • Semiconductors
  • Technology
  • Metals and Mining
  • Silver
  • Nasdaq 100
  • Steel
  • Consumer Discretionary

Weak sectors past month

No sectors are down 5% or more in the last 20 trading days:

    Srong sectors past five trading days

    These sectors are up more than 3% in the last five days.

    • Junior Gold Miners
    • Gold Miners
    • Oil Services
    • Gold
    • Oil & Gas Exploration
    • Robotics and Artificial Intelligence
    • Semiconductors
    • Biotechnology
    • Silver
    • Metals and Mining
    • Coal
    • Energy
    • Technology
    • Steel
    • Nasdaq 100

    Weak sectors past five trading days

    No sectors are down 3% or more in the last five trading days.

     

    Bobby Raines

    Bobby Raines

    Bobby Raines is the Managing Editor of the Market Intelligence Center. He has degrees in Mass Communications and History from Emory & Henry College. Bobby worked at a mid-sized daily newspaper before making a switch to covering the financial industry full time in the years leading up to the financial crisis. He has been a member of the Fresh Brewed Media team since 2011 and has served as a writer and analyst. You can write to him at braines@marketintelligencecenter.com or follow him on Twitter: @BRatMICenter.

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