The Market Week Ahead: June 17 – June 21

 

June 17, 2019 – Are you ready for the most important meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee in at least the past six weeks?

Good! It starts tomorrow and will wrap up Wednesday with a written statement to be followed by a press conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Odds of an actual policy change at this meeting aren’t zero, but they are pretty low. The expectation is generally for the central bank to set the table for a hike at the July meeting, or possibly later in the year. That means the news from this meeting is likely to be about changes to language in the statement, as well as analysis of the “dot plot” and what Powell says in the press conference. 

Tim Duy, and economist who runs one of the best Federal Reserve commentary blogs, has a great preview post here

Trade and the situation with Iran seem like the two things that could knock the Fed out of the headlines, but it would take a major escalation for one of those to have a bigger effect on the market than the Fed.  

Wednesday afternoon isn’t the only time to expect volatility this week. Previous Fed meetings have seen the market make at least one reversal from the post-announcement move, so keep an eye out on Thursday and Friday as well. 

Economic Events this Week

Consumer and producer price indices are the high points this week, but it seems like it would take a big surprise to really cause much reaction in the market.

  • Monday
    • 8:30 a.m. – Empire State Manufacturing
  •  Tuesday
    • 8:30 a.m. – Housing Starts
    • 8:30 a.m. – Building Permits
  • Wednesday
    • 10:30 a.m. – EIA Crude Oil Inventories
    • 2:00 p.m. – FOMC Rate Decision
  • Friday
    • 10:00 a.m. – Existing Home Sales

Earnings Reports this Week

Another quiet week for earnings.  

Tuesday:

  • Before the bell: None
  • After the bell: ADBE, JBL

Wednesday:

  • Before the bell: None
  • After the bell: ORCL

Thursday:

  • Before the bell: KR, DRI
  • After the bell: RHT, CGC

Friday:

  • Before the bell: None

Sector Analysis 

Strong Sectors past Month

These sectors are up 5% or more in the last 20 trading days:

  • Gold Miners
  • Junior Gold Miners
  • Medical Devices
  • Agriculture

Weak sectors past month

These sectors are down 5% or more in the last 20 trading days:

  • Oil & Gas Exploration
  • Oil Services
  • Semiconductors
  • MLPs

Strong sectors past five trading days

These sectors are up more than 3% in the last five days.

  • Biotech

Weak sectors past five trading days

No sectors are down 3% or more in the last five trading days.

Bobby Raines

Bobby Raines

Bobby Raines is the Managing Editor of the Market Intelligence Center. He has degrees in Mass Communications and History from Emory & Henry College. Bobby worked at a mid-sized daily newspaper before making a switch to covering the financial industry full time in the years leading up to the financial crisis. He has been a member of the Fresh Brewed Media team since 2011 and has served as a writer and analyst. You can write to him at braines@marketintelligencecenter.com or follow him on Twitter: @BRatMICenter.

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