The Market Week Ahead: July 22 – July 26

 

July 22, 2019 – Earnings season is likely going to dominate financial news this week. The Federal Reserve is in the quiet period ahead of next week’s meeting, and there are no trade talks currently scheduled to generate a big headline.

We mentioned Friday that big downside moves have outnumbered big upside moves in the very small sample of earnings we got last week. We’ll get a better idea this week if that trend continues, or if we’ll also see some blowout upside surprises. The last several quarters have seen pretty measured reactions to earnings, which would be our preference for how things should work. Over-enthusiasm, in either direction, tends to get corrected later, which can make trading difficult.

We mentioned above that trade talks that are likely to generate big headlines are currently scheduled for this week. That is a situation that can change rapidly. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are reportedly scheduled to travel to China next week for talks. Telephones (and Twitter) both exist though, so it is possible that the situation with China, the EU and even Britain could change before the end of the week.

We break Britain out in the sentence above because Boris Johnson is expected to be sworn in as the new Prime Minister on Wednesday. Johnson will be tasked with delivering the poisoned chalice of Brexit. Among the many sticky wickets surrounding Britain’s exit from the EU is the area of trade. As a member of the EU, Britain, by itself,  has very few trade deals with the rest of the world or with the other members of the EU. After the country exits the continent’s common market, it will no longer be party to the EU deals, and thus have virtually no trade deals at all. Johnson and Trump are both populists who agree on some number of issues, so the U.S. could be the first country Johnson rings up once he moves into number 10 Downing St. 

 

Economic Events this Week

Friday’s GDP numbers are the biggest item on the docket this week (barring a big surprise somewhere else), but an estimate of economic activity for a period that ended a month ago and will be revised twice isn’t that big of a deal.

  • Tuesday
    • 10:00 a.m. – Existing Home Sales
  • Wednesday
    • 10:00 a.m. – New Home Sales
    • 10:30 a.m. – EIA Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thursday
    • 8:30 a.m. – Durable Orders
    • 8:30 a.m. – Durable Goods
  • Friday
    • 8:30 a.m. – GDP – Adv.
    • 8:30 a.m. – GDP Deflator – Adv.

Earnings Reports this Week

Earnings season is in full swing this week.

Tuesday:

  • Before the bell: KO, UTX, LMT, KMB, SHW
  • After the bell: V, TXN, CB, CNI, EW

Wednesday:

  • Before the bell: T, BA, TMO, NEE, UPS
  • After the bell: FB, PYPL, NOW, LVS, SU

Thursday:

  • Before the bell: CMCSA, BUD, TOT, AZN, MMM
  • After the bell: AMZN, GOOGL, INTC, SBUX, SYK

Friday:

  • Before the bell: MCD, ABBV, CHTR, CL, PSX

Sector Analysis 

Strong Sectors past Month

These sectors are up 5% or more in the last 20 trading days:

  • Junior Gold Miners
  • Gold Miners
  • Semiconductors
  • Silver

Weak sectors past month

These sectors are down 5% or more in the last 20 trading days:

  • Oil & Gas Exploration

Strong sectors past five trading days

These sectors are up more than 3% in the last five days.

  • Junior Gold Miners
  • Silver
  • Gold Miners
  • Semiconductors

Weak sectors past five trading days

No sectors are down 3% or more in the last five trading days.

  • Oil & Gas Exploration
  • Oil Services

Bobby Raines

Bobby Raines

Bobby Raines is the Managing Editor of the Market Intelligence Center. He has degrees in Mass Communications and History from Emory & Henry College. Bobby worked at a mid-sized daily newspaper before making a switch to covering the financial industry full time in the years leading up to the financial crisis. He has been a member of the Fresh Brewed Media team since 2011 and has served as a writer and analyst. You can write to him at braines@marketintelligencecenter.com or follow him on Twitter: @BRatMICenter.

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