The Market Week Ahead: Aug. 12 – Aug. 16

 

Aug. 12, 2019 – Another week in August where is seems like whatever is on the calendar is very likely to be superseded by something not on the calendar. 

All the reasons for the volatility of the last two weeks remain in play. 

The trade war is no closer to being resolved than it was Friday when President Trump said talks scheduled for September may not happen. 

It’s hard to imagine a Brexit plan that isn’t hard Brexit emerging with most of Europe on vacation for the month. 

Meanwhile, the bond market, which many people consider the “smart money” when it comes to predicting future economic growth, continues to rise. This means that people are willing to take lower-and-lower returns in exchange capital for preservation.

In plan English, this means that expectations for a recession are rising. This is perhaps not surprising given the number of geopolitical headwinds facing the global economy, none of which seem like they’re going to be resolved any time soon.

Economic Events this Week

This is a relatively full list, this data is all valuable, but none of it is likely to cause a big shift in markets. That said, a downside surprise would probably have considerably more effect than one to the upside.

  • Tuesday
    • 8:30 a.m. – CPI
  • Wednesday
    • 7:00 a.m. – MBA Mortgage Applications Index
    • 10:30 a.m. – EIA Crude Oil Inventories
  • Thursday
    • 8:30 a.m. – Retail Sales
    • 9:15 a.m. – Industrial Production
    • 9:15 a.m. – Capacity Utilization
  • Friday
    • 8:30 a.m. – Housing Starts
    • 8:30 a.m. – Building Permits
    • 10:00 a.m. – Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Prelim.

Earnings Reports this Week

Earnings season is still busy, but winding down. There’s a lot of semiconductor names this week.

Tuesday:

  • Before the bell: JD, ELAN, AAP, GDS, PSN
  • After the bell: CDK, ADPT, TLRY, HUYA, YY

Wednesday:

  • Before the bell: CAE, M, LK, GOOS, VIPS
  • After the bell: CSCO, A, NTAP, CGC, STNE

Thursday:

  • Before the bell: BABA, WMT, TPR
  • After the bell: NVDA, AMAT, PAGS, ZTO

Friday:

  • Before the bell: DE, QD

Sector Analysis 

Strong Sectors past Month

These sectors are up 5% or more in the last 20 trading days:

  • Junior Gold Miners
  • Gold Miners
  • Silver
  • Solar

Weak sectors past month

These sectors are down 5% or more in the last 20 trading days:

  • Oil & Gas Exploration
  • Oil Services
  • Coal
  • Steel
  • Energy
  • Robotics & Artificial Intelligence
  • Retail
  • Metals & Mining
  • Banks
  • Regional Banking
  • Consumer Discretionary
  • Financial

Strong sectors past five trading days

These sectors are up more than 3% in the last five days.

  • Silver
  • Gold
  • Gold Miners
  • Junior Gold Miners

Weak sectors past five trading days

These sectors are down more than 3% in the last five days.

  • Oil Services
  • Steel
  • Coal
  • Oil & Gas Exploration
  • Metals & Mining
  • Regional Banking
  • Banks
  • Retail
  • Agriculture
  • Robotics & Artificial Intelligence

Bobby Raines

Bobby Raines

Bobby Raines is the Managing Editor of the Market Intelligence Center. He has degrees in Mass Communications and History from Emory & Henry College. Bobby worked at a mid-sized daily newspaper before making a switch to covering the financial industry full time in the years leading up to the financial crisis. He has been a member of the Fresh Brewed Media team since 2011 and has served as a writer and analyst. You can write to him at braines@marketintelligencecenter.com or follow him on Twitter: @BRatMICenter.

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