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What Do Investors Need To Know About Swine Flu? + Lee’s take on NWS, NYT, GCI, AXP, AMZN, NFLX, EBAY, DEO, STZ, TAP, UAUA, AMR, DAL, TWX, DIS, RGC, JNJ, GSK, WAG, CVS, RAD, CPB, KR, WMT, and DKS

 

 
 


InvestorsObserver Featured Contributor
Lee M. Allen





It seems the H1N1 Swine Flu epidemic has momentarily slid off the front page of the Wall Street Journal – owned by NewsCorp (NWS), New York Times (NYT), and USA Today – owed by Gannett (GCI) for a while. Maybe all the reporters covering this important story have been quarantined or this virus has gone into hiding in some uninhabited location like Detroit, Michigan.

Last spring, when the Swine Flu bug sprang out of Mexico and took root in New York, Chicago, and parts of Texas, we all went into a frenzy. Anyone who sneezed, coughed, or looked feverish could be Swine Flu carriers. But as spring led into summer, fear subsided because the traditional North American flu season had ended.  We would all be safe.

Or so we thought…

All through June, July and August reports surfaced of camps, summer schools, and medical facilities being shut down because people started showing Swine Flu symptoms. This flu was a wily virus that would not take the summer off and things seemed to be shaping up into a potential horror show…


Swine Flu survival kit now available
on eBay (EBAY)

And that’s why I decided to put together my Fall 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu Investors Guide…

Read on for more of Lee’s insights into Swine Flu survival...

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To learn more about this flu, you might be tempted to go to your doctor’s office, visit a hospital, or drop in at your local CDC – Center for Disease Control – facility. But, take it from me: these are the last places in the world you should go. There are sick people in all these places, and lots of them. These are the exact locations sick people like to congregate and spread germs. If you are not already part of the not-so-exclusive Swine Flu club, there is almost a 100% chance you will get the flu in one of these places because they are filled with two kinds of people:


New Swine Flu-resistant teacher uniforms

1) Sick people who will not hesitate to infect you so they are not alone in their misery.

2) Health care workers who have ready access to a limited supply of the magic pills that cure the Swine Flu and they are sorry to tell you that your name just isn’t on the list of people eligible for those pills. And you can’t buy the pills even with that Platinum American Express (AXP) card burning a hole in your pocket.

And the scary part is that, right now, all over the country in every town, city, and village, Swine Flu incubators are being set up. I know it sounds a little bit like the classic movie The Body Snatchers, but it’s true. If you think I’m wrong, you might want to watch this film. You can get the DVD at Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), or eBay (EBAY), if there is anyone still not infected with the Swine Flu and working at those places.

Where is the Swine Flu incubator in your area?

Look no further than your local grade school, middle school, high school or college. When you pack hundreds or maybe thousands of kids into one of these places, even one sneeze, cough, or vomit can infect them all. Almost instantaneously! If not faster.

Then…  These students bring that fresh virus infection home where it spreads to parents and gets brought back to their work places, race tracks, the 7-Eleven, or wherever they go.  Just like those pods in The Body Snatchers.

This H1N1 Swine Flu virus has been laying relatively low for the last few months, but now it’s ready to re-emerge and give millions of people those nasty expelling-violently-from-both-ends flu symptoms.

The biggest problem with this flu stuff is that it’s no fun. When you get sick, you like to have a few days off work to relax, watch television, drink plenty of liquids – made by companies like Diageo (DEO), Constellation Brands (STZ), or Molson Coors (TAP) - and golf a few rounds.  But this flu is going to knock you out so badly, you will actually need to use your sick time because you are really sick.

If this crazy flu infects as many people as they say, you can bet certain companies will win while others lose. According to those smart government officials in white lab coats, so far this flu has just made a lot of people sick. The symptoms have mostly been pretty normal flu-type symptoms.


New Swine Flu-resistant flight attendant
uniforms in testing phase

What could the Swine Flu do to the stock market as we know it?

At this point, we are all sitting on brokerage accounts that look like they have had a serious eleven-month knock-down fight with a six-foot-five, three-hundred-pound flu virus named Vito, so some insights into which companies could win and which could lose might be helpful right about now.

When the coughing, sneezing, and other bad stuff gets revved up, you can bet people will not want to be stuck in confined spaces with possible flu carriers. Expect Airlines like United (UAUA), American (AMR), and Delta (DAL) to see a drastic drop in customers. Not to mention the difficulties they may have finding flight crews to operate the jets, since many may be on “sick leave”.


How to avoid Swine Flu at the office

Even less confined places like movie theaters could see a huge drop in attendance, so film-related companies like Time Warner (TWX), Disney (DIS), and Regal Cinemas (RGC) will have something new to blame for poor earnings. It couldn’t have anything to do with the sorry state of the dirty, smelly, technically-challenged theaters or the low quality of recent films.

Some winners might include medical-related companies like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) or GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).  Drug stores like Walgreens (WAG), CVS (CVS) and Rite Aid (RAD) should see a rise in sales, as people need more pain relievers, flu remedies, and the all-important get well cards. I’ve been told there is actually a higher margin on the cards than the drugs.

What’s the one thing we are all going to need if we get sick?

When we can actually keep solids in our stomachs, we will all have a major craving for comfort food. That means soup to most people.  And when you think about soup, you probably think about Campbell’s (CPB). As recovering flu survivors stagger into their local Kroger (KR) or Wal-Mart (WMT), they will go right for those cans with the familiar red and white labels. Soup is the legendary comfort food we will all use to recover and get our strength back.

And after we have been nursed back to health on a diet of Campbell’s Chicken Noodle Soup, maybe we could even stretch that sick time into an extra day or week so we can hit the golf course.  So keep your eye on Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) because with all those people taking “sick time,” you might just see a lift in golf club purchases.

If you have any other ideas on what Swine Flu might do to the stock market or thoughts on how to avoid the flu, email me at LeeAllen@InvestorsObserver.com.

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