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What Happened? Was It All A Bear-Market Rally Or Just A Platypus Flop? + Lee’s Take On C, GE, COST, WYNN, AAPL, MSFT, NFLX, SBUX, BBY, K, KFT, and NWS.

 

 
 


InvestorsObserver Featured Contributor
Lee M. Allen





Since March, the stock market looked like it was headed back into the resurrect-your-401k zone. Stocks like CitiGroup (C), General Electric (GE), Costco (COST), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), and Apple (AAPL) staged amazing recoveries.

But then something went wrong and the market snapped back into red territory. It could have been some disappointing earnings reports, the realities of ugly unemployment numbers, or the odd things the smart boys at Microsoft (MSFT) seem to be saying about how they were less than enthusiastic about the future of the entire global computer industry.

Even the recent less-than-terrible-news on the home sales front has not been enough to snap the market back into its solid upward movement.  It would have been nice if the market just steadily headed up for the next few years. Only a mere percent a month and we would all be happy. If inflation stays low, eventually you could recover all your losses and even a little extra. Maybe even start thinking about crazy things like a new car, vacation or turning your Netflix (NFLX) subscription back on.


Will the bear win again this year?


Unfortunately, things don’t work that way. The market always needs to throw in some excitement just to test investors.  Maybe that’s why we keep hearing terms like bear market rally.

Read on for more of Lee’s insights into earnings season and bear market rallies...

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Things were looking so good a few weeks ago that economists, TV business news people, and even the guy who makes lattes down the block at Starbucks (SBUX) were declaring the recession over.  A few companies had spun out earnings reports with actual live profits, President Obama was smiling again, people even went back to Best Buy (BBY) and started to load up on unessential electronic gadgets.


Even bears can get into trouble

But then the stock market’s upward movement was disrupted and things started to drop. Those talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg were talking about something called a bear market rally. But why pick on the bears? They didn’t have anything to do with the series of financial fiascos that got us to where we are now.  At least I don’t think they did.

The last time I checked, bears are smelly woodland creatures that mostly keep to themselves unless you are a camper who leaves food out at night. Especially marshmallows, Pop Tarts – made by Kellogg’s (K), or unwashed pans of burned Kraft (KFT) macaroni and cheese. Then you can certainly expect a visit from Mr. Bear at your campsite.

But why would a bear care about the stock market? There probably isn’t an actual live bear within miles of Wall Street these days. Why not call a fiercely declining stock market a duck market or a weasel market? Maybe even a platypus market.

Why pick on the bears?

I’m sure that what happens in the stock market is not important to bears at all. It’s a known fact few bears subscribe to the Wall Street Journal – a Newscorp (NWS) division.  Basically, from what I’ve seen in zoos, these animals lay around, eat fruit, and look out at people with an “I’ll bet you taste better than an orange” look on their faces.  Beside basking in the sun and occasionally moving a few feet, all they do is scheme about how they are going to dig a tunnel and break out.

Who came up with this idea of calling a bad market a bear market anyway?

Finding the answer to this question would normally pose a monumental problem, since I have a pretty strict policy about never letting my journalistic integrity be influenced by doing anything that remotely looks like research, unless it involves food and someone else is paying, that is.
 
But it’s summertime and you know what that means… The office is full of eager interns ready to deliver coffee, endlessly use our office computers to keep their facebook pages updated, and do my research.

So I assigned this to one of our efficient yet slightly green-behind-the-ears interns. Luckily, it was one who spoke fluent English. And I gave him a full thirty minutes to find out why they call it a bear market. I was on a deadline, after all; thirty minutes was just long enough for me to run down to the 7-Eleven for a slushy and box of donuts to power me for the next few hours.

One good benefit about this thing they are calling a recession is that interns are more eager than ever. When I returned from my food run, I found an email waiting with everything I needed on the origination of the term “Bear Markets”. Actually, the trusty intern provided a few different possible stories.


Could this solve Wall Street’s problems?

Back in olden days they had people called “bear skin jobbers". They were known for selling bear skins they didn’t own from bears they had not caught yet. “Bear” was eventually used to describe short sellers or speculators who sold shares that they did not own, bought after a price drop, and then delivered the shares.  Thus they thrived in a Bear Market.

There was also a story about a guy known as Tom “The Bear” Jackson. This one also happened back in olden days so it is not totally verifiable. I guess I’m taking the intern’s word on this.


Could this be the original Wall Street bear?

Mr. Jackson was a trapper, hunter, and card player who had an unusually large collection of lethal working guns and was not afraid to use them. After many years he had amassed what at the time could be considered a sizable fortune. One day, a friend mentioned to Mr. Jackson that he knew a guy who might be able to invest his money so he could take it out of that mattress where he kept it hidden and put it somewhere safer. But this investment guru only took on a select number of clients. If he agreed to invest your money, that meant you were in an extremely important group of the smartest and best people. 

Without hesitation, Mr. Jackson hauled his entire mattress over to this investment expert who had a shiny office and a lot of people running around looking busy. For many months Mr. Jackson received impressive dividend checks, but eventually the country was hit by a recession.  Buggy makers were failing, banks shut their doors, and government programs expanded like they could print all the money they wanted. Mr. Jackson got worried and decided it was a good time to cash out. Unfortunately, his investment advisor gave him the bad news that all his money was gone; he would have to fill his mattress with duck feathers because all the money had disappeared.

Mr. Jackson returned later that day and shot the investment advisor. A doctor was summoned to the office to tend the investment advisor’s wounds, but when he arrived he realized the advisor had lost all of the doctor’s money, too. Mysteriously, the advisor died of what should have been a minor gunshot wound. When Tom “The Bear” Jackson went on trial, it turned out the advisor had also lost the judge’s money; so, in the end, Mr. Jackson was set free and given the keys to the city in a big ceremony like the one at the end of a Star Wars episode.

And that’s evidently why they call it a Bear Market when the stock market is headed down. I still think it would be more interesting if they called it a platypus market.

IMPORTANT NOTE: No animals were harmed in the production of this article.

If you have any insight into why the market is dropping or need an intern to do some research for you, please e-mail me at LeeAllen@InvestorsObserver.com.


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