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What Important Component Do Analysts Forget When They Value Stocks? + Lee’s take on GE, JPM, X, RIMM, BAC, RAD, ODP, ETFC, LVLT, HGSI, MSFT, STX, IP, BRK.A, EK, HSY, AAPL, CSX, OXY, JNJ, RRD, T, MCD, SBUX, SLE, PFE, IBM, SHLD, CL, CCL, and DIS

 

 
 


InvestorsObserver Featured Contributor
Lee M. Allen





Stocks have had a marvelous run up since last March’s lows. Even with the recent ever-so-slight weakness, stock market Armageddon seems far away at this point.

But now those smart Wall Street types say stocks may be fully valued. That’s their CNBC - a division of General Electric (GE) - obtuse talking heads’ way of basically telling us stocks are overpriced and could stall out or drop. 

Sure, some stocks have gone up 50% and some have even doubled in price (none that I owned; someone else got rich off those). But there is more to a stock than appreciation or dividends. Many of those smart Wall Street types fail to take a third valuation concept into account when they run their sophisticated company valuation models, formulate forward-looking technical analysis, or use tarot cards.

This third valuation element may not be covered in those three-pound financial analysis books. It may not be something the hotshots at J.P. Morgan (JPM) even have on their radar. And that is precisely the reason why it’s my job to bring this to your attention. 

The third element for valuing stocks may be just the thing that could lift the markets even higher and potentially help companies out of this recession.


Shouldn’t you demand more
from your stocks?


Read on  for more of Lee’s insights into an often overlooked stock valuation component...

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What do these stocks all have in common: United States Steel (X), Research in Motion (RIMM), Bank of America (BAC), Rite Aid (RAD) and Office Depot (ODP)?

I could give you a few hints or keep you guessing here for a few hours, but that would be more fun for me than you. These stocks all more than doubled over the last quarter. In fact, Office Depot (ODP) has gone up more than 300%.


Did you get your Starbucks
shareholder gift bag?

Smart people might think these stocks are fully valued with little hope of appreciating much over the next quarter like they did over the last few months. They may be right. But you didn’t stop in here for a highly technical article on stock analysis. Nope; you know better than to expect anything remotely highly or technical from me.

I look deeper. Below the surface. I dig in for the real facts no one else can find. That’s what a hard-nosed journalist does.

If you are a typical investor, you probably use things like broker recommendations, fancy-schmancy charts, past stock movements, or your Uncle Stan’s tip-o-meter to determine if stocks are fairly valued. In fact, that is one way investors make money off stocks.  They buy stocks now at a lower price; then, at a later date, another investor thinks the stock is undervalued so he is willing to pay a higher price for it. That’s called, “finding the greater fool.” I wish these greater fools were in the phone book.

Another way to make money off stocks is when a company pays a few pennies per share in dividends. I guess that’s where all the pennies in that cup next to the 7-Eleven cash registers came from.

Stocks like E*TRADE Financial (ETFC), Level 3 Communications (LVLT) and Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) don’t pay dividends, but all these stocks more than doubled over the last few months.

There is a third way investors can benefit from stocks and should be used when determining value. You usually don’t see this on any income statement, balance sheet, stock chart, or Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien. You will need to do a little more digging. You may even need to call the actual company President or Shareholder Relations department.

In my experience, when you call a major company like Microsoft (MSFT), Seagate Technology (STX), or International Paper (IP) and ask to speak with the President, they immediately transfer you to someone from the Investor Relations department. If you call those same companies and ask for the Investor Relations department, they start asking a lot of questions, at which point you totally forget why you called anyway.

This third stock valuation component seems a little odd at first, but when you stop to consider that it is so important, someone as respected as Warren Buffet -- the Grand Poohbah of investors and fearless leader of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) -- places a huge value on this all- important element, you will realize everything you know about stocks may be wrong.

When you buy a stock, you expect to see a few things every year. You expect an annual report. You expect quarterly updates. You expect the Board of Directors to be made up of the Chairman’s golf buddies. You expect all kinds of excuses for things called non-recurring expenses, bad debt write-offs, and multiple back-dated option grants.

But one thing you don’t expect, and should definitely be factored into the overall value you place on the stocks you own, are the investor perks.


Prominent bank chairman when asked this
question at the company’s annual meeting,
“Where are the donuts?”


That’s right… Did you forget to ask for your investor perks?

All along you thought it was just company executives who received perks like private jet travel, special gourmet dining rooms, and million-dollar bathrooms. Well, on all of these you thought right. There is no way you will get any of those things unless you actually are employed by the company. Unfortunately, you may actually have to work pretty hard, too.

But there is an entire array of investor perks out there like these, and all you have to do is own the stock. Wrigley has sent out holiday mailings of free chewing gum to their shareholders.  Eastman Kodak (EK) has handed out photographic discounts. Dole used to set up huge displays of tropical fruits for shareholders to pillage on the way out of annual meetings. Hershey (HSY) serves up a chocolate-lover’s feast at its annual meeting. Extensive lavish gourmet food, dessert, and beverage extravaganzas are laid out for those hungry shareholders attending the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Apple (AAPL) and CSX (CSX) annual gatherings.


Warren Buffet supplies the entertainment at the
Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting

If you are on a strict diet, you could go for the non-food goodie bags handed out to shareowners of Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Years ago, if you attended the Ben & Jerry's annual meeting, you would be in the middle of a free music festival. There was probably ice cream there, too, but forget about that since you are on that pesky diet. But just a taste won’t kill you.

What if you can’t make it to the company’s annual meeting? Then the CEO and his happy, well-paid and perked Board of Directors may gladly send those shareholder goodies to you by mail. Berkshire Hathaway might give you a discount on GEICO auto insurance. R.R. Donnelley (RRD) may mail you a smartly- bound book. AT&T (T) has sent shareholders ten minute phone cards stapled to their annual reports.  Big name food emporiums like McDonald's (MCD) and Starbucks (SBUX) send coupons for free French fries and coffee.

But wait; there’s more. A lot more. Companies like Sara Lee (SLE), Pfizer (PFE), IBM (IBM), Sears (SHLD) Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) and Disney (DIS) have lavished their loyal shareholders with amazing perks.

If you didn’t get your shareholder perks, you might want to look a little closer at that annual report package before you chuck it in the recycle bin. These days, when share prices may flatten, dividends are being cut, and everyone else seems to be getting $2 million dollar bonuses, you might want to take advantage of these perks because that’s all you may receive for your stock until further notice.  

f you have found any interesting investor perks or a snapshot of a lavish buffet from a recent company annual meeting, please e-mail me at LeeAllen@InvestorsObserver.com.

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