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Wouldn’t it be nice if there was a simple checklist
to tell you when it was time to drop a stock from your portfolio?
Well there just might be something pretty close.
It's really hard to sell stocks. Especially the ones you've
owned for a while. They become like old friends and you never
want to say goodbye. No matter how many time they eat everything
in your refrigerator.
Hey... They're just stocks. Not even pieces of paper anymore.
Just bits and bytes of electromagnetic energy on a computer
probably out in Utah somewhere.
When it's time to dump a stock, push the button and get rid
of it.
But, unfortunately for a lot of investors selling a stock
becomes an emotional issue instead of a logical, pragmatic,
analytical decision. People make that sell decision with their
heart instead of their heads.
I know a guy who has held on to stocks in his portfolio longer
than he held on to his last two wives. And a few of those
stocks cost him more than his alimony payments.
When it’s time to sell and you know you should do let
it go, it’s just hard to actually pull the trigger.
This cuts two ways… If the stock has been falling then
people want to hold on to give it a chance to come back up
so they don’t need to admit a loss. If the stock is
flat or up, people want to hold on in hopes that it will continue
up.
But investors have to remind themselves the only way to actually
make money on stocks is to sell them. Sometimes the smartest
thing is to sell a bad stock so you can buy a better one and
ride that new stock up for a while.
Sort of like jumping from a slow train or even one going
in the wrong direction so you can get on a fast moving train.
Hopefully an express that will get you where you want to be
even faster.
The key is to get out of those stocks before they drop further
and to hold on to the ones that truly have promise. If you
are reluctant to sell, then you need to look into the mirror
and ask yourself if this an emotional decision or should you
dump the stock right now?
But how do you know when to let those stocks go?
The 18 Warning Signs That Tell You
When To Dump A Stock
Now this is not just some checklist you can run through in
18 seconds. You will also find convenient links to free Internet
investment information resources to get the answers you need
to determine if your stock meets the checklist criterion.
If you are reading this article on a web page you can just
click on the link to get to the resource then in many cases
enter the stock symbol you are looking for.
So as you go through these warning signs check off the tests
that your stock does not pass. By breaking down the way you
look at your stock into a list like this you should be able
to take the emotion out of the decision.
If you enter your stock symbol below and click on the [OK]
button for many of the items below you will not need to enter
the stock symbol again.
Here are eighteen warning signs to watch for:
Enter a Symbol above
1. When a stock's price drops 10% to 15% from a recent
high.
CLICK
HERE for a quick chart of your stock. The last price and
52 week price range are shown above the chart. Look at the
stocks recent (30 to 60 day high) and compare it with the
current price.
2. If some problem arises in the industry or the
company.
Has the company lost some big patent case? Have a changing
economy impacted the company’s sales? Have investors
decided to rotate out of the stock’s sector? Most of
these will be shown in past news stories or in the one year
stock chart. A steady or sharp drift down usually spells trouble.
CLICK
HERE for that stock chart again. Then CLICK HERE to find
other stocks in the sector. Now enter those stock symbols
in the chart and see if those other stock show a similar chart
pattern.
3. If the stock price has stagnated. Why not sell
it and buy something else that might shoot up?
CLICK
HERE for that stock chart again. If that price is flat
you know what you might have to do.
4. The stock's P/E is higher than others in the
same industry... And you can't explain why it's out of sync.
CLICK
HERE to find other stocks in the sector. Scroll down the
table to find your stock and look at the P/E (price/earnings
ratio). You can look at the top two lines of the table to
compare that value with the Sector and the Industry. If your
stock’s P/E is significantly higher, there better be
a good reason or your stock might be on the way down.
5. In general, earnings are falling for the company
or the industry.
CLICK
HERE to bring up that list of similar stocks. Find the
line for your company and look at the top two lines for the
Quarterly revenue Growth and Quarterly Earnings. If your company
is ahead of the Sector and/or Industry great. If not, too
bad. And if the sector/industry growth rates are below 10%
or 12% that could be a sign of trouble.
6. The company has cut its dividend.
Dividend stocks are especially hard to get rid of because
you get a nice periodic cash gift from the company. But if
the company has dropped that dividend even a few pennies then
it may be time to drop that company.
CLICK
HERE for a list of the recent dividends paid by the company.
When the page appears scroll down to the dividends section.
Be sure you check for stock splits which are shown in the
table titled “Splits” above the “Dividends”
table. It may appear that a company has reduced it’s
dividends but if they did a stock split the dividend rate
per share will go down but the overall dividend yield will
be the same of go up.
7. A key manager leaves and the new manager seems
lost. (i.e. Can't clearly articulate the vision for company
growth and profitability, reluctant to make needed changes,
from a totally different industry)
CLICK
HERE for some recent news on the company. Scan through
the stories and see what you can learn.
8. The stock price falls below $10 a share.
In general stocks that are below $10 a share tend to drop
faster. Especially if they were at $100 a share a year ago.
Those sub-ten-dollar stocks might look nice because you can
pile on the shares for a lower investments but stick with
the higher priced stocks if you can.
9. The company's sales margins and return on equity
look bad compared to other similar companies.
CLICK
HERE for these important ratios. Then key in a few symbols
from other companies in the sector. Compare them and see what
you learn.
10. The company is about to embark on a large `boneheaded`
acquisition. i.e. AOL acquires Time Warner.
CLICK
HERE for some news stories. This news page will allow
you to step back in time and scan through some of the older
news stories. Look through those for moves the company has
announced when you might not have been looking. Scroll to
the bottom of the list of stories then click on the “Next
25” link.
11. The company itself has been acquired and the
acquisition makes no sense.
CLICK
HERE for some of those recent news stories again.
12. You discovered the stock sometime ago and enjoyed
a nice price run-up but now the stock has been discovered
by the world. Now where will new buyers come from to drive
up the price?
CLICK
HERE for another look at that chart.
13. Key managers in the company start to sell a huge
amount of stock. Or they start to buy puts to protect their
stock if the price falls.
CLICK
HERE for a look at if the insider have been buying or
selling the stock.
14. When the company's sales are on the decline
and key management tries to revise their bonus plan. Fire
the bums or sell the stock.
The best place to determine this is in that supplement to
the annual report. This will usually show things they expect
the shareholders to vote on. My antennas always go up when
management wants to revise their bonus plan after a year that
the company has underperformed.
CLICK
HERE to get started on that exploration if you threw out
that annual report.
15. Declining earnings growth. The company's earnings
growth has drastically slowed from the previous year. An EPSG%
less than 20%.
CLICK
HERE for a look at those earning ratios.
16. The company continues to or has started to burn
cash. When a company uses more cash than it makes, it's just
a matter of time before the ACE BOARDUP trucks arrive and
the company shuts down.
CLICK
HERE for a look at the company’s balance sheet.
Take a look at how the numbers on the “Cash & Equivalents”
line changes from year to year. It’s hard to fake cash
in the bank.
17. The company is just too big sustain stellar growth...once
a company explodes past the ten billion sales mark, it's hard
to grow at the same pace it did in the pre-ten billion dollar
years. It might be time to find another rising star unless
it is pretty obvious the company can hit at 15% EPSG. (i.e
IBM, HP, PFE)
CLICK
HERE for a look at the company’s income statements.
It’s nice to see big increasing sales numbers but just
how far can the company go. If you are looking for stock price
growth the biggest companies may not be able to give that
to you. And if their sales fall short of last year’s
(or last quarter’s) down goes the stock.
18. A boneheaded new product announcement. i.e A
leading personal computer operating system company decides
to make a foray into operating systems for copy machines.
CLICK
HERE for another look at the recent news. Look for those
significant new product announcement that just don’t
make sense for the company. Also a large number of new product
announcements could be a danger sign.
If your stock has more than a few of these warning signs,
then you need to ask yourself why you're holding onto the
shares?
At those cocktail parties, people always tell the story about
the stock they held on to and came back from the ashes. But
for every stock that comes back there are so many that kept
falling. People just don’t talk about the ones that
lose them money.
Hopefully if you follow this checklist you shouldn’t
have many big looses to worry about. But you might have a
few stories about stocks you sold before a big drop. Those
stories can be as good as the big winners.
Don’t forget… You can always sell the stock now,
watch it drop then buy it back at a lower price.
All stocks and options shown are examples only. These
are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. Any pricing
or potential profitability shown does not take into account
your trade size, brokerage commissions or taxes which will effect
actual investment returns. Stocks and options involve risk and
are not suitable for all investors and investing in options
carries substantial risk. Prior to buying or selling options,
a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of
Standardized Options available at: http://www.cboe.com/Resources/Intro.asp.
Stock recommendations and comments presented are solely those
of the analysts, experts, or information source quoted. They
do not represent the opinions of Investors Observer or InvestorsKeyhole
on whether to buy, sell or hold shares of a particular stock
or option. Investors should be cautious about any and all stock
or option recommendations and should consider the source of
any advice on stock or option selection. Various factors, including
personal or corporate ownership, may influence or factor into
an expert's stock analysis or opinion. All investors are advised
to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks
before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are
advised that past stock or option performance is no guarantee
of future price appreciation or depreciation. Those involved
with the preparation and distribution of this report may have
had in the past, currently hold, or may purchase in the future
stock and/or options in companies discussed in this report.
It is expected that the limited distribution of this report
to a relatively small number of investor will not materially
affect the price of this widely held stock.
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